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Expectations concerning the Stockholm Trial were many, as were uncertainties about how its effects would be influenced by the fact that the trial period was limited. Numerous questions centered on whether such a limited trial period would result in the large effects indicated by traffic models- road users/passengers might choose to “sit out” the trial period and not adjust their travel patterns.
Even before the Stockholm Trial started, most experts were well aware that motorists are sensitive to economic incitement so expectations that the congestion tax would reduce traffic volumes were therefore well grounded.
The reduction in traffic volume was carefully predicted by traffic modelling. Several different scenarios were tested. Other effects like emissions of carbon and particulate matter were calculated from the traffic decrease from the transport models. Volume/delay-models predicted that a decrease of 10 to 15 percent of the traffic would be enough to give substantial travel time savings.
Based on the modelled predictions the expectations were that:
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