www.curacaoproject.eu                      CURACAO - coordination of urban road-user charging organisational issues                   Funded by the EU

Road Pricing Context

OBJECTIVES

SCHEME DESIGN

TECHNOLOGY

BUSINESS SYSTEMS

Prediction

PREDICTION

TRAFFIC EFFECTS

ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

EQUITY

Appraisal

APPRAISAL

Decision Making

ACCEPTABILITY

TRANSFERABILITY

Implementation and Evaluation

EVALUATION

IMPLEMENTATION

Case Studies

Bergen

Bologna

Bristol

Cambridge

Durham

Dutch National Case

Edinburgh

London

Manchester

Milan

Nord-Jaeren

Oslo

Rome

Stockholm

The Hague

Trondheim



Urban Road User Charging Online Knowledge Base

Impacts Predictability

Expectations concerning the Stockholm Trial were many, as were uncertainties about how its effects would be influenced by the fact that the trial period was limited. Numerous questions centered on whether such a limited trial period would result in the large effects indicated by traffic models- road users/passengers might choose to “sit out” the trial period and not adjust their travel patterns.

Even before the Stockholm Trial started, most experts were well aware that motorists are sensitive to economic incitement so expectations that the congestion tax would reduce traffic volumes were therefore well grounded.

The reduction in traffic volume was carefully predicted by traffic modelling. Several different scenarios were tested. Other effects like emissions of carbon and particulate matter were calculated from the traffic decrease from the transport models. Volume/delay-models predicted that a decrease of 10 to 15 percent of the traffic would be enough to give substantial travel time savings.

Based on the modelled predictions the expectations were that:

  • traffic would decrease, but less than the forecasted 25% in the city centre
  1. speeds would increase, primarily along the north-south axis
  2. but not visibly
  3. and mostly inside the cordon
  • traffic and congestion on the Essinge by-pass would increase significantly
  • effects during peak hours would be much larger than between peaks


When comparing the outcome with the forecasts we can conclude that the overall picture was fairly correct. The figure below shows the predicted and actual change in traffic flow.